Major Indexes Close Slightly Lower After Earnings Flurry, Stronger-Than-Expected January Jobs Report

Robinhood’s CEO Says a Prediction Markets ‘Supercycle’ Is Just Starting

FROM 6 hr 18 min ago

Investors dumped shares of Robinhood Wednesday after the company reported disappointing quarterly results. Its CEO says they should be excited about its newest slate of offerings, particularly in prediction markets.

“We’re just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,” Vlad Tenev told investors during the company’s earnings call late Tuesday, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

Robinhood said in its earnings report that its prediction markets volume more than doubled in the fourth quarter, with $12 billion in contracts in the first full year of operations in 2025. The company said it’s already at $4 billion so far this year.

Read the full article here.

–Aaron McDade

These 5 Software Stocks Could Double in Price This Year, Says Morgan Stanley

FROM 8 hr 23 min ago

Software stocks may be down, but they’re not out, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Shares of software companies have been hammered this year by concerns that AI will upend the industry. The iShares Expanded Tech-software Sector ETF (IGV) has shed more than a fifth of its value since the start of the year, led lower by industry giants Intuit (INTU), ServiceNow (NOW), and Salesforce (CRM). 

Investors entered the year worried that increased competition from AI-native startups will pressure incumbents’ profit margins and AI tools will shrink corporate headcount, limiting seat-based revenue growth. Those fears reached a fever pitch last week when the release of AI legal tools by Anthropic sparked a sell-off dubbed “SaaSpocalypse.”

The rout was “broad and largely indiscriminate, with limited differentiation across business models or fundamentals,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on Wednesday. That, they say, has created buying opportunities. 

Read the full article here.

–Colin Laidley

What to Expect From Friday’s Report on Inflation

FROM 8 hr 45 min ago

Price increases were likely relatively tame in January, with one key inflation measure expected to drop to its lowest level in nearly five years.

A report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show the Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% over the year in January, down from a 2.7% annual increase in December, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to fall to a 2.5% annual increase from 2.6% in December, hitting a fresh low since 2021.

If the report matches expectations, it could bolster the argument of some forecasters who believe the effect of tariffs on inflation will fade steadily in the coming months as companies finish their tariff-related price hikes.

Inflation rates fell in 2024 and early 2025, and went into reverse mid-year when President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. Import taxes have pushed up prices on many products, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. However, some key prices, including for gasoline and rent, have stayed flat or fallen, keeping overall inflation from spiking.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

How Are Investors Dealing With AI Fears These Days? ‘Sell First, Ask Questions Later’

FROM 8 hr 57 min ago

This week it was financials. Last week it was software and legal services. Perhaps next week something else will be crushed by fears of AI disruption.

Investors appear to have pivoted from worrying about AI getting over its skis in valuation terms, to fretting about what it could displace—and selling it.

Between Anthropic’s unveiling of an AI model the company said would be better at tasks including financial analysis, research, and work involving spreadsheets, and with tech platform Altruist launching an AI-powered tax planning tool, investors have panned shares of financial companies like Charles Schwab (SCHW) and LPL Financial (LPLA) this week. The SPDR S&P Software & Services (XSW) and Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) ETFs are down 19% and 3%, year-to-date, respectively, while the benchmark index is in the green.

AI-related disruption, real or perceived, would appear to be entrenched in market vibes. That may, in part, be driven by the impact of the technology becoming more quantifiable. And it could be a source of indiscriminate selling going forward, with equity strategists saying “disruption-related volatility” is likely to be “recurring.”

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

QXO Stock Soars After ‘Highly Complementary’ Kodiak Building Partners Acquisition

FROM 9 hr 10 min ago

QXO (QXO) CEO Brad Jacobs believes the roofing and waterproofing firm’s $2.25 billion acquisition of Kodiak Building Partners “is highly complementary to our existing business.” Investors evidently agree.

Shares of QXO soared nearly 15% to about $26.65 Wednesday after the Greenwich, Conn.-based company acquired Kodiak from Court Square Capital Partners for $2.0 billion of cash and 13.2 million shares. QXO has the right to repurchase the shares at $40 each. 

Jacobs, a serial entrepreneur who has founded and led eight billion-dollar companies, said QXO will “be able to deliver more value to customers across our combined base by cross-selling products and support services, and with a greater presence in key markets.”  

The deal is expected to close in the second quarter and be highly accretive to 2026 earnings.

“Kodiak holds #1 or #2 positions in many of its local markets, particularly across higher-growth Sun Belt and Mountain states, and operates in highly fragmented segments that offer substantial consolidation runway aligned with our long-term path toward a $50 billion revenue company,” a QXO spokesman said.

QXO shares have nearly doubled in value over the past 12 months.

Data Revision Pokes Hole in Biden Job Creation Record

FROM 10 hr 6 min ago

Unexpectedly upbeat job creation data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics gave President Donald Trump reason to celebrate, and added an asterisk to a record formerly held by his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Until Wednesday, the bureau’s data on job creation showed the economy gained jobs every single month Joe Biden was president, making him the only commander-in-chief in history to have never presided over job losses.

However, a routine revision to data from 2024 and 2025 means that’s no longer true: it turns out the economy actually lost 48,000 jobs in January 2025, a month that spans the presidencies of both Biden and Trump. Previously, the BLS had estimated the economy gained 111,000 jobs that month.

Biden could now only accurately say the economy never lost jobs in any full month he was president.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Here’s How Much Traders Expect Applied Materials Stock to Move After Earnings

FROM 10 hr 30 min ago

Applied Materials is set to post fiscal first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with traders anticipating the semiconductor equipment maker’s stock could reach new highs following the results.

Options pricing suggests traders expect Applied Materials (AMAT) shares could move about 6% in either direction. A move of that size from Tuesday’s close at $329 would lift shares to $350, above their January record. The low end of the range would bring shares back down to around $308.

Applied Materials, which is a leading producer of equipment for semiconductor manufacturing, has seen its shares jump nearly 30% since the start of this year, and more than 80% in the last 12 months amid strong demand for chips and AI hardware.

Though Applied Materials is seen reporting a decline in sales and profits year-over-year as the company has grappled with headwinds from export restrictions to China and geopolitical uncertainty, analysts from Morgan Stanley said ahead of the report that demand likely “meaningfully” improved from when the company last reported results in November.

Read the full article here.

–Aaron McDade

This Toy Maker’s Stock Plummets 25% After Disappointing Holiday Earnings Report

FROM 11 hr 49 min ago

The holidays have not been kind to Mattel’s stock.

Shares of Mattel (MAT) were down nearly 25% to just under $16 in recent trading after the toy maker’s latest earnings report covering the winter holiday shopping season—typically its strongest sales period of the year—disappointed.

The maker of Barbie, Hot Wheels, and dozens of other toy brands said after the bell Tuesday that it earned an adjusted 39 cents per share in the fourth quarter on $1.77 billion in revenue, each below the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha.1

Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz said in Tuesday’s earnings call that the company’s December order growth was slower than expected after retailers spent the first part of the quarter catching up on orders delayed by uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariffs. Kreiz said the shortfall was largely in the U.S., as Mattel’s international business grew as expected in the quarter, per an AlphaSense transcript.

Read the full article here.

–Aaron McDade

Trump Accounts Are Supposed to Help Children Build Wealth. But Could They Worsen Inequality?

FROM 12 hr 6 min ago

President Donald Trump has touted Trump Accounts as a way for young people to build wealth early on, but one expert suggests that these new investment accounts for children could widen the wealth gap.

Trump Accounts, which were established by 2025’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” are set to launch on July 5. Babies born between 2025 and 2028 are eligible for an initial $1,000 one-time investment from the government. With these accounts, children can’t access the money until age 18, after which the accounts are treated like a traditional IRA. These accounts may be funded by the government, parents, employers, nonprofits and more.

Founders and philanthropists, including Michael Dell and Ray Dalio, have already pledged to donate to the accounts while employers, such as JPMorgan and Charles Schwab, have said they’ll match the government’s one-time contribution for their eligible employees. Advocates of Trump Accounts say they will provide children with a head start in building wealth.

“Wealthy Americans already had the means and legal tools to invest in their children; thanks to President Trump’s leadership, every other American parent does, too—a game-changer that will only level the playing field,” said White House Spokesperson Kush Desai.

Read the full article here.

-Trina Paul

Robinhood Stock Sinks on Sluggish Revenue, Trading Activity

FROM 12 hr 46 min ago

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) shares slumped Wednesday, a day after the online brokerage posted fourth-quarter results that included lackluster growth.

Robinhood’s revenue grew to $1.28 billion, while transaction-based revenue came in at $776 million and it reported $324 million in total platform assets. All three metrics fell short of analysts’ estimates, although earnings per share of 66 cents came in 4 cents above estimates.

The stock has had a rough few weeks as its ties to the crypto markets have weighed on sentiment amid a sell-off for bitcoin. Shares have lost roughly a third of their value in 2026.

–Aaron McDade

It’s So Cold Out You Can See It in Economic Statistics

FROM 12 hr 58 min ago

There’s cold weather, and then there’s weather so cold you can see it on a thermometer and even in the economic data.

The winter storms that blanketed the country in snow and ice from New Mexico to Maine in January and February were large enough to affect the entire U.S. economy. Economists saw effects of the unusually cold weather in natural gas prices and retail sales, for instance, and predict ripple effects in areas like housing in the coming months.

Economic fallout from the weather is hardly unusual, but the culprit is often hurricanes, not a cold snap. Unlike hurricanes, the severe winter weather did not destroy vast amounts of infrastructure—but it did keep people indoors and out of stores and restaurants, which was enough to impact the economy.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Fed Likely to Stay on the Sidelines After Solid Jobs Report

FROM 13 hr 53 min ago

With the labor market seemingly on solid footing, the Federal Reserve policy committee is less likely to cut its influential rate at its next meeting.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data, traders are pricing in only a 6% chance the Fed will cut the fed funds rate at its next meeting. That’s down from 22% before the jobs report was released.

The Fed was likely already accounting for the data revisions, economists said. And with price pressures still lingering, officials are likely to turn their attention to bringing inflation back to their 2% goal by keeping rates higher for longer.

–Taylor Tompkins

Consumers Enter 2026 With More Reasons to Spend Cautiously

FROM 15 hr 39 min ago

After years of revving up the economy, are consumers set to tap the brakes on their spending?

New data shows that retail sales stalled in December, falling short of expectations after several months of robust growth.1 And it could be an early signal that consumers are set to pull back their spending in 2026 as more face a worrisome jobs market.

“Consumer spending growth has been strong, although I think you can argue it has slowed at least a little bit,” said Scott Hoyt, senior director for Moody’s Analytics, who has also forecasted a slowdown in consumer spending growth this year. ”Part of it is because the labor market is so weak, we’re not adding a lot of jobs, and nobody seems to expect that to change materially.”

Consumer spending makes up around two-thirds of the U.S. economy, meaning even slight slowdowns can have a meaningful impact on economic activity. 

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

New Kraft Heinz CEO Says ‘Prudent to Pause’ Planned Separation

FROM 15 hr 59 min ago

Kraft Heinz apparently will not be splitting in two after all.

In its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings report, new Kraft Heinz (KHC) CEO Steve Cahillane said the company’s “challenges are fixable and within our control,” adding that “we believe it is prudent to pause work related to the separation and we will no longer incur related dis-synergies this year.”

Cahillane, who was Kellanova’s chief executive until its December acquisition by Mars, took over as Kraft Heinz’s CEO on Jan. 1. Kraft Heinz said in September that it planned to break up, undoing a merger that was just a decade old.

Kraft Heinz’s Q4 net sales declined 3.4% year-over-year to $6.35 billion, slightly worse than expectations of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha, as volume/mix fell 4.7 percentage points, with declines in each segment. “Unfavorable volume/mix was primarily driven by declines in coffee, cold cuts, Indonesia, bacon, and Ore-Ida,” it said.

Although Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $0.67 topped estimates, its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.98 to $2.10 was well below the consensus $2.48.

Kraft Heinz shares were down 7% before the bell. They entered the day down more than 15% over the past year.

What Is World Liberty Financial? What to Know About the Trump Family’s Crypto Firm

FROM 16 hr 21 min ago

The Trump family has a range of business interests—including a crypto company with big financial ambitions.

The company, World Liberty Financial, has a lending market called WLFI Markets. It has applied for a national banking charter through its World Liberty Trust subsidiary. And it bills itself as a DeFi, or “decentralized finance,” ecosystem, which broadly means it seeks to remove middlemen from financial transactions.

World Liberty Financial was founded by President Donald Trump, his sons, the president’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Witkoff’s sons. Its USD1 stablecoin, which aims to stay pegged to the U.S. dollar, is at the center of the Trump family’s crypto venture—as is its token WLFI, which was recently trading around 11 cents, a fraction of its peak around 33 cents since its September launch.

WLFI Markets lets users borrow and lend against digital assets using USD1. The app isn’t available everywhere in the U.S., including New York. But if it gains traction, it could boost the circulating supply of USD1 and, potentially, the interest income generated by the assets that back it.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

Raises Are Getting Harder to Come By

FROM 16 hr 46 min ago

If you weren’t happy with the raise you got this year, you were hardly alone.

Wages and salaries for private industry workers rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. Year-over-year, wages were up 3.4%, the same as in the first quarter but a decline from the third quarter.

The slowdown in salary growth was the latest in a series of indications that the job market is getting tougher for workers as employers cut back on hiring. Job openings have also fallen to a post-pandemic low, with unemployed workers now outnumbering open jobs, and the unemployment rate has edged up since the beginning of 2025.

“The weak fourth-quarter growth in the [Employment Cost Index] aligns with the balance of labor market data, which was increasingly soft in the second half of 2025,” Dante DeAntonio, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a commentary. “Employers are facing much less pressure to increase wages than in previous years.”

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Stock Futures Little Changed Ahead of January Jobs Report

FROM 17 hr 24 min ago

Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointed 0.1% higher.

S&P 500 futures also were up 0.1%.

Nasdaq 100 futures were fractionally lower.